The games of the week...
What makes one game better than the next? If you view the game in isolation, arguably a game between two strong teams might seem suitable, But if you view each game as part of a longer league campaign, then the importance of that game in determining who ultimately wins the league is arguably more important. The best heavyweight clash attempts to identify the former, the best six pointer the latter.
The best six pointer attempts to identify the game with most at stake to both teams in terms of determining the destination of the title. Two questions inform our thinking. First, at the end of the season, what are the odds that the game featured the champions and that had the champions lost this particular game, the title would instead have been won by the opposition? Second, how strong is the league?
For the first question, we run simulations for each league to identify the probability that a given game will, with hindsight, prove to have been a six pointer. This probability will be one for title deciders on the final game of the season. More often, we will be assessing a game’s six pointer importance when there are many more games to play. We form a view on how well the teams will do in their other games, before concluding how likely that the particular game will prove to have been a six pointer
The simulations are based on our own team power rankings, which are updated to account for results (W/L/D rather than scores) in domestic leagues (and some cups) and continental competitions using the chess ELO ratings. These ratings are also used to determine the relative strengths of leagues (and “heavyweight clashes).
Not all leagues are created equal. Few would choose a title decider for the Latvian championship over an early season game between two top Spanish or English sides, even though the latter games may very well prove not to have mattered for the ultimate destination of the title come season end. Controlling for league strength requires arbitrary decisions. Should we focus on the strength of the best team, or the average team, or some combination of teams?
We look at the average expected performance of the top 8 teams in each of the leagues against the World Club Champions (Chelsea). There is nothing special about top 8, although it does mean that we can compare all leagues using the approach outlined as they almost all have at least 8 clubs (for European leagues, this is a UEFA requirement although Armenia and Lithuania have breached it on occasion in recent years).
The best heavyweight clash is determined by looking at the power rating for the weaker of the two teams playing in the match. A game is deemed to be a heavyweight clash if both teams are at least as good as the 50th best team globally.
The coverage of leagues is global but not completely comprehensive. For some leagues, mainly in Africa, the ratings are not yet calibrated with teams around the world so do not appear. For leagues that operate separate Apertura and Clasura titles with no playoff between the two winners, the six pointers are given less weight since there are two titles rather than one at stake each year.
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